Wake Forest named a top U.S. growth city

Triangle Business Journal

Wake Forest is one of the top high-growth communities in the country, according to a ranking compiled by research firm Gadberry Group.

Gadberry, which provides location information and household data for clients such as retailers, on Tuesday announced the top nine cities in its “from 2009” report.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Gadberry evaluated various metrics, including growth in households and income. Wake Forest placed sixth in the ranking. The city grew from 8,150 households in 2000 to 17,803 in 2009, a 118 percent increase, according to Gadberry’s analysis. The average annual household income for Wake Forest increased from $70,148, to $82,771.

The top city was Atlanta suburb Braselton, Ga., which saw its household income increase 67 percent from 2000 to 2009. Houston suburb Atascocita, Texas followed. Texas was well represented with four cities. Besides Wake Forest, no other North Carolina community made Gadberry’s top rankings.

“As a Wake Forest native, I’ve recognized the explosive growth that our community has experienced,” Don Stroud, Wake Forest Area Chamber of Commerce board co-chair said in a statement. “The Gadberry data will give us the quantitative tools we need to continue to draw new development to Wake Forest.”

Published: Sep 22, 2009 03:40 AM in The News & Observer

Mid- Year Review notes from 23 July 2009

 On the 23^rd of July a hundred or more real estate and associated business professionals attended the Mid-Year Space review held by the Triangle Business Journal at the Embassy Suites in Cary, NC. Here are a few notes I took on each section, along with the presenters name and subject.  Please see the attached slideshow from the presentation as a reference.

 Keith Crisco/Keynote Speaker:  North Carolina Secretary of Commerce.  He discussed how North Carolina is aggressively competing for new businesses against neighboring states in the region and how important tax incentives can be.  He also stated that these incentives are tied to performance and the ability of the incoming company to employ the number of people they projected.  So if a company does not employ 90% of their projected number of new jobs, they do not get the incentive for that year.  He also said that there have been 4500 new jobs created in the state since JAN 2009.

Matt Riggs/ Construction Costs: Vice President of Centurion Construction.  Construction costs are down 40% from OCT 2008.   He said there are a number of issues that will cause construction costs to increase in the future: Infrastructure building in China which will effect raw material costs, “Green” building concepts that may be integrated into building code,  the possibilities of companies being required to provide healthcare .

Mike Munn/ Regulatory Issues: Vice President of the John R. McAdams Company.  The proposed franchise Tax for LLC’s and LLP’s has not passed yet.  There has been some development extensions which extends permits for current developments (Bill  SB831).  The Jordan Lake rules became law on June 30,2009 and increase the standards for stormwater management.  The Falls lake rules are under revision and expect to see more changes as a result of the drought of 2007, which also resulted in a tiered water rate which increased water costs.  Expect to see a new term emerge called LID or Low-Impact Development which will be the next LEED.  Expect  to see new regulations that stress the importance of water quality and quantity.

Bernard Helm/Residential Market: Market Opportunity Research Enterprises (MORE).  New home sales down 30-40%.  The average price of a new home is down 8% when comparing 2Qtr 2009 with 2Qtr 2008.  Volume of home sales is down 30% when compared to the peak in 2006/2007.  Many lenders are holding large numbers of properties and many homeowners are holding on to their properties instead of selling right now.  On the positive side the rate of decline is slowing. www.morereport.com for more info and see TBJ SPACE slides.

Amanda Jones Hoyle/Real Estate By the Numbers: Real Estate Reporter, Triangle Business Journal.  The Flex market is stable right now with little increase or decline in vacancy rates with warehouse vacancies increasing.  Office vacancy topped 18% which is the highest it has been in the last 20 years.  Very little new space will be built over the next few years.

Rex Thomas/ Looking Ahead, What’s in Store: Chairman and CEO, Grubb& Ellis/ Thomas Linderman Graham.  Historically recessions have lasted about 3 years, but this is not a normal recession.  The vacancy rates are projected to peak in 4^th QTR 2010 or 1^st QTR 2011 with unemployment rates to increase through mid 2010.  Retail trends are going to change significantly since people have changed their spending habits.  The triangle is expected to emerge from this recession ahead of the National Market with the triangles population expected to double by 2025.  The accolades from National magazines have made this an attractive place to relocate to and start businesses.

Matt Rhoad/ Legal Trends: Lawyer, Smith Anderson.  The legal trends right now are toward more lawsuits and less deals.  There is an increasing importance on comprehensive community planning which tend to drive rezoning approvals.  Matt referred to the city of Raleigh 2030 draft plan (431 pages) that was released DEC 2008 and includes 17 different categories of future land uses and has a future land use map.  There is still some time to influence this plan since it will probably be voted on in SEP 2009.  After the comprehensive plan is voted on their will be an overhaul of the UDO(Unified Development Ordinance) and development regulations.

The auction method has advantages for every party in the event: the buyer, seller, all bidders and spectators.

Buyers often find rare items and can usually take home their purchase right away from an onsite auction, not waiting for shipping or incurring shipping costs after they have already purchased an item.

Sellers at auction can usually be assured that their property will sell on a certain day. Real estate sellers, in particular, like the fact that a sale on a specific day will end their carrying costs and they enjoy being able to set a minimum price they will accept at auction.

Bidders have a great time, even if they don’t always get their chosen item. They eagerly anticipate the item coming up for auction; they think about how high they will bid; they watch the competing bidders and often talk with them afterward.

Spectators at auction enjoy an exciting event and seeing what types of items are offered in auctions these days. Attendees don’t feel pressured to buy, and they can bring the whole family to see and learn about antiques, art, furniture and other items.

Auctions are a community event. People see friends and meet new people. Auctions have been a social gathering for thousands of years and continue to be the best way to determine current market price for items.

Here are a few other facts about auctions.

• A speedy process.
  There’s no doubt that an auction is the fastest sales process around. It’s quick and efficient and that’s what makes it attractive. We sell a multitude of items in a short time.
• You Set Your Own Price and Establish a Value.
  You are in control at an auction. You decide when to bid and how much to bid - how high or low you want to go.
• Certainty of Knowing What You’re Getting.
  Auctioneers deal with a wide range of merchandise. They are educated professionals who know value and price. Many have special certifications in personal property or estate appraisals.
• Fun and Excitement.
  There’s no doubt that an auction is entertainment at its finest. Crowds of people competing for unique property, combined with that lively and rhythmic auction chant make for some great entertainment and fun. It’s an event the whole family can enjoy.
• Honesty of the Transaction.
  Auctions are very organized and the rules are straightforward. Auctioneers who are members of the National Auctioneers Association, as I am, are bound by a code of ethics that protects consumers against unfair auction practices.

www.auctioneers.org

Distressed properties reflect struggling market fundamentals

Commercial real estate closed the first half of the year with weakened fundamentals and a slow pace of transactions amid difficult economic conditions.  Demand for commercial properties dropped precipitously, bringing down prices and rents.  In addition, maturing commercial debt was met with little available credit, leading to a jump in delinquencies and distressed properties.  As space flooded the market, vacancy rates have been rising across the board.  And while the economic decline is showing signs of a slowdown, commercial real estate continues to face strong headwinds.

Commercial real estate activity has suffered from a severe credit crunch for commercial sectors, sustained job losses and weak consumer spending, although the decline appears to be slowing.  A forward-looking indicator shows commercial real estate will remain weak into 2010, but recent actions by the Federal Reserve should improve some flow of capital into commercial lending, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity declined 1.3 percent to an index of 101.5 in the second quarter from a downwardly revised reading of 102.8 in the first quarter, and is 13.7 percent below the 117.6 recorded in the second quarter of 2008.  The index is at the lowest level since the first quarter of 1994; NAR’s track of the commercial leading indicator dates back to 1990.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted the pace of decline moderated, but the leading indicator has fallen sharply and quickly from the peak, suggesting much lower business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners engaged in leasing, sales and property management.  “The reduction in commercial real estate activity is expected at least through the first quarter of 2010.  Any meaningful recovery is not likely to occur before the second half of next year.”

The decline is driven by falling industrial production, far fewer jobs requiring office and retail space, a fall in durable goods shipments, much lower personal spending, lower retail and wholesale sales, and a negative return on commercial investment.  

“With the economic recession likely coming to an end within six months, a recovery in commercial real estate may soon follow,” Yun said.   “The office sector requires job growth to fuel the demand for additional space, the industrial sector needs a rise in production and the retail sector is tied to consumer spending.  Multifamily housing – the apartment market – often performs in reverse to trends in home sales, but can improve if there is sufficient household growth.”  

The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, a separate attitudinal survey of more than 650 local market experts,² also suggests a lower level of business activity in upcoming quarters.  Most respondents are seeing sales prices that are lower than replacement costs, and 96 percent report deep rental discounts and increased tenant concessions.

The SIOR index has declined for 10 consecutive quarters and stood at 36.0 in the second quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.

Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee chair Robert Toothaker said it is crucial to improve the availability of funds for commercial loans.  “Properties with positive cash flow have had trouble finding financing to roll over debt, transactions are essentially at a standstill and new development is virtually nonexistent in most areas,” he said.

“Commercial loans are mostly short term, and without ready financing even the most experienced commercial players can get into trouble.  The Fed’s recent decision to extend the TALF program for commercial mortgage backed securities beyond the end of 2009 is highly welcome because the flow of liquidity to commercial real estate will be critical for a sustainable economic recovery,” Toothaker said.  “However, unless there is a tremendous short-term recovery in the CRE markets, we expect the Fed will be revisiting the issue of another extension of the TALF program early in 2010.”

Bond yields on CMBS rose following the announcement by the Federal Reserve on August 17 that it is extending TALF lending for existing commercial securities through March 31, 2010, and for newly issued CMBS through June 30.

Looking at the broad market, commercial vacancy rates continue to rise while rents decline, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK.³  The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Historic data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research.

Yun projects the unemployment rate to peak around 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter, then gradually improve as 2010 progresses.  “We will need sustained economic growth before many employers have enough confidence to expand the job base and create new demand for space,” he said.

The gross domestic product should contract 2.9 percent in 2009 before growing 1.5 percent next year.  Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecast to decline 0.5 percent this year before rising 2.0 percent in 2010.

Office Market

The office sector continues to suffer the most from job losses, which reduces the demand for space.  Vacancy rates will probably increase from 15.5 percent in the second quarter to 18.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010. In the Triangle market, office vacancy is substantially higher than the national average, posted at 18.49% according to Triangle Business Journal’s SPACE survey.

Annual rent in the office sector is projected to fall 14.1 percent this year and 10.0 percent in 2010 after a 0.4 percent decline last year.  In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is estimated to be a negative 75.0 million square feet in 2009 and a negative 47.2 million next year.

Industrial Market  

The contracting global economy has constricted the industrial sector.  Vacancy rates are likely to rise from 13.0 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.0 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Triangle warehouse vacancy is trending higher than the national average as well, posted at 19.78% as of the end of the second quarter.

Annual industrial rent should fall 11.4 percent this year and another 11.7 percent in 2010, after declining 0.8 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 300.0 million square feet this year, and a negative 112.0 million in 2010.  Because much construction in recent years was customized to meet specific industrial needs, many obsolete structures remain on the market.

Retail Market

Given a pattern of weak consumer spending, the retail vacancy rate is forecast to edge up from 11.7 percent in the second quarter to 12.9 percent in the same period of 2010.  Average retail rent is likely to fall 6.1 percent in 2009 and 4.9 percent next year; it declined 2.0 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is expected to be a negative 25.9 million square feet this year and a negative 3.6 million in 2010. Largely due to restraint in speculative building on the part of retail developers, the Triangle market is faring better than the national average in the retail sector, with vacancy posted at 8.81% as of the end of the second quarter.

Multifamily Market

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is facing higher home sales by first-time buyers, but also is experiencing increased demand from families who have lost their homes.  Multifamily vacancy rates should slip from 7.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 7.1 percent in the second quarter of next year.

According to the National Association of Realtors’ overall forecast for commercial real estate, this industry will continue to face negative absorption, increasing vacancies for all property types and declining rents. Commercial debt continues to pose a major threat.  Extension of TALF funds for commercial lending should provide liquidity, particularly in the CMBS market.  Investments may rise due to distressed properties and lower prices.

If you are considering to sell or purchase commercial real estate in the North Raleigh/Wake Forest and surrounding areas please consider Millridge Real Estate, LLC.

1.     TELL YOURSELF A POSITIVE STORY.

Life is a story.  The story we tell ourselves and the role we play in that story determines the quality and direction of our life.  The best real estate professionals are able to overcome adversity by telling themselves a more positive story that the rest.  Instead of a drama or a horror movie, they define their life as an inspirational tale.  Instead of being the victim, they see themselves as a fighter and overcomer.  You may not be able to control market conditions, but you can influence the outcome of your story.

2.     MODEL YOURSELF AFTER SUCCESS

Are there real estate practitioners succeeding today?  Of course there are.  Seek out those people in your market and ask to meet with them.  Learn from their advice and model their attitudes and actions.  If they can succeed, so can you.

3.     FOCUS ON THE IMPORTANT STUFF.

Tune out the negative voices and start making positive choices.  What are you doing on a daily basis to grow yourself, your team, and your business?  Don’t focus on the negative things other salespeople and the media are saying.  Instead, focus on marketing your business, taking care of clients, and building loyal relationships. 

Every morning ask yourself this question:   

“What are the three (3) most important things I need to do today that will help me create the success I desire?” 

Then take action on those items.

4.     REPLACE “HAVE TO: WITH “GET TO”.

This simple ‘word swap’ can change your mind-set and your approach to work and life.  It turns a complaining voice to an appreciative voice, and acknowledges that life is a gift – not an obligation. So often we grudgingly say things like “I have to go to this meeting,” “I have to meet with this client,” or “I have to sell houses in this market.”  In reality, it’s not about what we have to do.  It’s about what we get to do.  Research shows that when we practice gratitude, we get a measurable boost in happiness that energizes us and enhances our health.  It’s also physiologically impossible to be stressed and thankful at the same time.

5.     REFUSE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE RECESSION.

Professionals who have thrived during past recessions continued to go about business as usual regardless of market conditions.  They worked hard and focused on taking actions to grow their business.  As others are paralyzed by fear, take the opportunity to charge forward!

6.     BOOST YOUR MARKETING AND ADVERTISING.

It may seem counterintuitive to spend more money on advertising and marketing right now.  But with so many of your competitors cutting back in these areas, this is a great opportunity to build your brand and gain market share.  People are still buying and selling, and they will buy from those whom they trust and see in the marketplace.

7.     CREATE A POSITIVE VISION.

Instead of being disappointed about where you are, make the decision to be optimistic about where you are going.  Create a positive vision for your future and the future of your team.  Vision helps you see the road ahead and it gives you something meaningful and valuable to strive towards.

8.     INVITE OTHERS ON YOUR BUS.

Invite colleagues and customers to board your bus for a positive ride.  Send them an e-bus ticket at www.TheEnergyBus.com.  Share your vision with team members and ask them to join you in making this vision a reality.  Be a positive influence..

9.     NO MORE COMPLAINING.

Abide by the “no complaining” rule.  When you realize you are about to complain, replace your thoughts and words with positive actions.  Let your complaints help you identify what you don’t want so that you can focus on what you do want.  The key is to turn complaints into solutions.

From Right Tools, Right Now (Realtor.com) Source: Jon Gordon, speaker/consultant/author of The Energy Bus: 10 Rules to Fuel Your Life, Work, and Team with Positive Energy (Wiley,2007)

The metropolitan area is home to more than 1 million people after growing by more than 4 percent from 2007 to 2008. But that is slower than in previous years.

By Kristin Collins, Staff writer

As the national economy lost steam last year, the Raleigh area continued to attract residents, becoming the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country.

According to census numbers released today, the Raleigh-Cary metropolitan area, which includes Wake, Johnston and Franklin counties, grew by 4.3 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, and is now home to close to 1.1 million people. It well outpaced its closest rival, the Austin, Texas, area, which grew by 3.8 percent.

The national average was just under 1 percent.

The Triangle has been near the top of the nation’s growth chart for more than a decade, as newcomers poured into the area to take jobs in technology, tourism and academia. The resulting building boom, and the jobs that came with it, drew hundreds of thousands of new residents.

Much changed in recent months as the economy fell into a deep recession. While the downturn took longer to arrive in North Carolina, the state’s unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is now well above the national average of 8.1 percent.

Next year’s figures may show a darker picture for the Triangle.

Even this year marks a slowdown for the area, despite its place at the top of the list. The growth rate was nearly half a point lower than the two previous years, when it was 4.7 percent.

The Durham-Chapel Hill metropolitan area, which includes Durham, Orange, Chatham and Person counties, didn’t make the Top 10, but its population continued to swell at a steady 2.5 percent, up slightly from the year before. Just fewer than 490,000 people live in that area.

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A few years ago it was too easy for a loan and now it is a lot harder to get a loan.  Time will tell if it gets to a happy median between the two extremes.

For those looking to get qualified in this tough market, please note the criteria below:

Fico Scores
These must be better than average (600+), and when the credit report is run there must be no Bankruptcy (BK), and likely no “collections” of accounts will be allowed.

Down Payments
Buyers must have some money to put down, no longer will the lenders approve 100% financing, most likely the lenders will require 10-20% down (except FHA which allows only 3% (3.5% in 2009)).

Ample Income
All income will need to be verified with pay stubs two year period and IRS and State tax filings for 2-3 years. Then they will calculate your debt-to-income ratios (looking to see that you can really make the payments). Each lender has different ratios they will pass or disqualify with. As a general rule, these days they are wanting to see much smaller debt-to-income ratios. In other words, the banks want to see borrowers with more income and less outstanding debt obligations.

Stated Income
This (with no verification) is no longer available, meaning quite a hardship on the self-employed, but lenders are very risk averse now. The only exception is if buyers have a very hefty down payment like over 30%.

Proof of Funds
A few months worth of recent bank account statements will be required to show that money is really available for closing costs and down payments.

Reserve Funds
Many lenders require that the borrower have reserve cash on hand to cover two to six months worth of payments.

Non-Occupants
If the property is not going to be the home of the borrower (like a rental) then most lenders will increase the interest rate on the loan.

Limited Holdings
Restrictions are also placed on many borrower that this property will not increase their rental holdings to more than 4 units. Lenders are very suspect of investors that might be over leveraging themselves.

Obviously, only very qualified people can meet the above criteria, and that is just what the lenders want in a time of uncertainty and massive losses. For the time being they can’t justify making any more high-risk loans. Hopefully, knowing what is needed in advance to get approved, buyers will understand that it is critical to prepare early and get their ducks in a row before starting the home buying process. For those lucky enough to be qualified in today’s market, a wide range of opportunity awaits them.

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