Archive for the ‘Market Data’ Category

Triangle ranks high in ‘08 N.C. economic data

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Published: Sep 22, 2009 03:40 AM in The News & Observer

The Triangle may be taking a beating in the recession, but it started its economic slide from an enviable position.Wake County was the most prosperous of the state’s large counties in 2008, according to census data released Monday.

Its median household income of about $65,000 topped the state median income of $46,500 by nearly 40 percent. And fewer than 13 percent of its residents lacked health insurance, compared with nearly 16 percent statewide.

Durham, Orange and Johnston counties were also among the state’s 10 richest counties.

The data included only places with more than 65,000 residents, so more than half the state’s counties and all but 14 towns and cities were excluded.

Among those municipalities, Cary was far and away the richest place in the state.

Top incomes

The swelling suburban town had a median household income of nearly $92,000, almost twice the state’s median income and $35,000 more than its closest competing city, Concord.

And only about 6 percent of Cary’s residents lacked health insurance, compared with about 16 percent statewide.

Neighboring Raleigh, by comparison, had a median income of less than $54,000, and nearly 17 percent of its residents were uninsured.

The Charlotte area ranked fourth on the median-income lists.

The state’s poorest large counties were Robeson, south of Fayetteville, and Wilkes, in the mountains, with household incomes of about $30,000.

Staff researcher David Raynor contributed to this report.

 

kristin.collins@newsobserver .com or 919-829-4881

Triangle Business Journal 2009 SPACE

Monday, September 21st, 2009

Mid- Year Review notes from 23 July 2009

 On the 23rd of July a hundred or more real estate and associated business professionals attended the Mid-Year Space review held by the Triangle Business Journal at the Embassy Suites in Cary, NC. Here are a few notes I took on each section, along with the presenters name and subject.  Please see the attached slideshow from the presentation as a reference.

 Keith Crisco/Keynote Speaker:  North Carolina Secretary of Commerce.  He discussed how North Carolina is aggressively competing for new businesses against neighboring states in the region and how important tax incentives can be.  He also stated that these incentives are tied to performance and the ability of the incoming company to employ the number of people they projected.  So if a company does not employ 90% of their projected number of new jobs, they do not get the incentive for that year.  He also said that there have been 4500 new jobs created in the state since JAN 2009.

Matt Riggs/ Construction Costs: Vice President of Centurion Construction.  Construction costs are down 40% from OCT 2008.   He said there are a number of issues that will cause construction costs to increase in the future: Infrastructure building in China which will effect raw material costs, “Green” building concepts that may be integrated into building code,  the possibilities of companies being required to provide healthcare .

Mike Munn/ Regulatory Issues: Vice President of the John R. McAdams Company.  The proposed franchise Tax for LLC’s and LLP’s has not passed yet.  There has been some development extensions which extends permits for current developments (Bill  SB831).  The Jordan Lake rules became law on June 30,2009 and increase the standards for stormwater management.  The Falls lake rules are under revision and expect to see more changes as a result of the drought of 2007, which also resulted in a tiered water rate which increased water costs.  Expect to see a new term emerge called LID or Low-Impact Development which will be the next LEED.  Expect  to see new regulations that stress the importance of water quality and quantity.

Bernard Helm/Residential Market: Market Opportunity Research Enterprises (MORE).  New home sales down 30-40%.  The average price of a new home is down 8% when comparing 2Qtr 2009 with 2Qtr 2008.  Volume of home sales is down 30% when compared to the peak in 2006/2007.  Many lenders are holding large numbers of properties and many homeowners are holding on to their properties instead of selling right now.  On the positive side the rate of decline is slowing. www.morereport.com for more info and see TBJ SPACE slides.

Amanda Jones Hoyle/Real Estate By the Numbers: Real Estate Reporter, Triangle Business Journal.  The Flex market is stable right now with little increase or decline in vacancy rates with warehouse vacancies increasing.  Office vacancy topped 18% which is the highest it has been in the last 20 years.  Very little new space will be built over the next few years.

Rex Thomas/ Looking Ahead, What’s in Store: Chairman and CEO, Grubb& Ellis/ Thomas Linderman Graham.  Historically recessions have lasted about 3 years, but this is not a normal recession.  The vacancy rates are projected to peak in 4th QTR 2010 or 1st QTR 2011 with unemployment rates to increase through mid 2010.  Retail trends are going to change significantly since people have changed their spending habits.  The triangle is expected to emerge from this recession ahead of the National Market with the triangles population expected to double by 2025.  The accolades from National magazines have made this an attractive place to relocate to and start businesses.

Matt Rhoad/ Legal Trends: Lawyer, Smith Anderson.  The legal trends right now are toward more lawsuits and less deals.  There is an increasing importance on comprehensive community planning which tend to drive rezoning approvals.  Matt referred to the city of Raleigh 2030 draft plan (431 pages) that was released DEC 2008 and includes 17 different categories of future land uses and has a future land use map.  There is still some time to influence this plan since it will probably be voted on in SEP 2009.  After the comprehensive plan is voted on their will be an overhaul of the UDO(Unified Development Ordinance) and development regulations.

DECLINE IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTORS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Distressed properties reflect struggling market fundamentals


Commercial real estate closed the first half of the year with weakened fundamentals and a slow pace of transactions amid difficult economic conditions.  Demand for commercial properties dropped precipitously, bringing down prices and rents.  In addition, maturing commercial debt was met with little available credit, leading to a jump in delinquencies and distressed properties.  As space flooded the market, vacancy rates have been rising across the board.  And while the economic decline is showing signs of a slowdown, commercial real estate continues to face strong headwinds.


Commercial real estate activity has suffered from a severe credit crunch for commercial sectors, sustained job losses and weak consumer spending, although the decline appears to be slowing.  A forward-looking indicator shows commercial real estate will remain weak into 2010, but recent actions by the Federal Reserve should improve some flow of capital into commercial lending, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity declined 1.3 percent to an index of 101.5 in the second quarter from a downwardly revised reading of 102.8 in the first quarter, and is 13.7 percent below the 117.6 recorded in the second quarter of 2008.  The index is at the lowest level since the first quarter of 1994; NAR’s track of the commercial leading indicator dates back to 1990.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted the pace of decline moderated, but the leading indicator has fallen sharply and quickly from the peak, suggesting much lower business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners engaged in leasing, sales and property management.  “The reduction in commercial real estate activity is expected at least through the first quarter of 2010.  Any meaningful recovery is not likely to occur before the second half of next year.”

The decline is driven by falling industrial production, far fewer jobs requiring office and retail space, a fall in durable goods shipments, much lower personal spending, lower retail and wholesale sales, and a negative return on commercial investment.  

“With the economic recession likely coming to an end within six months, a recovery in commercial real estate may soon follow,” Yun said.   “The office sector requires job growth to fuel the demand for additional space, the industrial sector needs a rise in production and the retail sector is tied to consumer spending.  Multifamily housing – the apartment market – often performs in reverse to trends in home sales, but can improve if there is sufficient household growth.”  

The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, a separate attitudinal survey of more than 650 local market experts,2 also suggests a lower level of business activity in upcoming quarters.  Most respondents are seeing sales prices that are lower than replacement costs, and 96 percent report deep rental discounts and increased tenant concessions.

The SIOR index has declined for 10 consecutive quarters and stood at 36.0 in the second quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.

Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee chair Robert Toothaker said it is crucial to improve the availability of funds for commercial loans.  “Properties with positive cash flow have had trouble finding financing to roll over debt, transactions are essentially at a standstill and new development is virtually nonexistent in most areas,” he said.

“Commercial loans are mostly short term, and without ready financing even the most experienced commercial players can get into trouble.  The Fed’s recent decision to extend the TALF program for commercial mortgage backed securities beyond the end of 2009 is highly welcome because the flow of liquidity to commercial real estate will be critical for a sustainable economic recovery,” Toothaker said.  “However, unless there is a tremendous short-term recovery in the CRE markets, we expect the Fed will be revisiting the issue of another extension of the TALF program early in 2010.”

Bond yields on CMBS rose following the announcement by the Federal Reserve on August 17 that it is extending TALF lending for existing commercial securities through March 31, 2010, and for newly issued CMBS through June 30.

Looking at the broad market, commercial vacancy rates continue to rise while rents decline, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK.3  The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Historic data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research.

Yun projects the unemployment rate to peak around 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter, then gradually improve as 2010 progresses.  “We will need sustained economic growth before many employers have enough confidence to expand the job base and create new demand for space,” he said.

The gross domestic product should contract 2.9 percent in 2009 before growing 1.5 percent next year.  Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecast to decline 0.5 percent this year before rising 2.0 percent in 2010.

Office Market

The office sector continues to suffer the most from job losses, which reduces the demand for space.  Vacancy rates will probably increase from 15.5 percent in the second quarter to 18.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010. In the Triangle market, office vacancy is substantially higher than the national average, posted at 18.49% according to Triangle Business Journal’s SPACE survey.

Annual rent in the office sector is projected to fall 14.1 percent this year and 10.0 percent in 2010 after a 0.4 percent decline last year.  In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is estimated to be a negative 75.0 million square feet in 2009 and a negative 47.2 million next year.

Industrial Market  

The contracting global economy has constricted the industrial sector.  Vacancy rates are likely to rise from 13.0 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.0 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Triangle warehouse vacancy is trending higher than the national average as well, posted at 19.78% as of the end of the second quarter.

Annual industrial rent should fall 11.4 percent this year and another 11.7 percent in 2010, after declining 0.8 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 300.0 million square feet this year, and a negative 112.0 million in 2010.  Because much construction in recent years was customized to meet specific industrial needs, many obsolete structures remain on the market.

Retail Market

Given a pattern of weak consumer spending, the retail vacancy rate is forecast to edge up from 11.7 percent in the second quarter to 12.9 percent in the same period of 2010.  Average retail rent is likely to fall 6.1 percent in 2009 and 4.9 percent next year; it declined 2.0 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is expected to be a negative 25.9 million square feet this year and a negative 3.6 million in 2010. Largely due to restraint in speculative building on the part of retail developers, the Triangle market is faring better than the national average in the retail sector, with vacancy posted at 8.81% as of the end of the second quarter.

Multifamily Market

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is facing higher home sales by first-time buyers, but also is experiencing increased demand from families who have lost their homes.  Multifamily vacancy rates should slip from 7.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 7.1 percent in the second quarter of next year.

According to the National Association of Realtors’ overall forecast for commercial real estate, this industry will continue to face negative absorption, increasing vacancies for all property types and declining rents. Commercial debt continues to pose a major threat.  Extension of TALF funds for commercial lending should provide liquidity, particularly in the CMBS market.  Investments may rise due to distressed properties and lower prices.

Spring 2009 RCA Report

Monday, June 29th, 2009

The Next Shoe to Fall Before Recovery

By Lawrence Yun, PhD.,  CHIEF ECONOMIST NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

The commercial real estate landscape is precipitously unraveling.  The delinquency rates on commercial loans are still low by historical standards, but are rising steeply.  The increased defaults, unlike homeowners who could not pay their higher resetting mortgage payments, are often occurring even though payments are being made on a timely basis.  Lenders are labeling loans as ‘nonperforming’ because of a perceived decline in mark-to-market collateral value, and demanding that borrowers come up with cash to cover the short-fall.

The credit crisis has also essentially shut down the issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities.  With capital so scarce, property purchases have all but dried up.  Investment in  office properties was down 75% in 2008, retail investment fell by a similar amount, while industrial investment fared relatively better … if we can use the term … with a 58% downfall.

On top of the credit-crisis and market-to-market accounting-induced defaults, commercial market fundamentals are turning sharply for the worse.  By 2010, the cumulative job cuts could reach 6 million, which would be roughly equivalent to a situation in which everyone who had a job in Illinois at the start of the recession now found themselves on the unemployment roll.

The national office vacancy rate will jump to 17% by year’s end from 13% in 2008.  The industrial vacancy rate could rise to 13% from the under-10% rate of just two years ago.  The retail sector will also feel the pain of a 14% vacancy rate, up from 9% at the start of the recession.  As a result, rents will fall by 5% to 8% in these property sectors in most metro markets.

The sector that is holding up decently is the multifamily sector.  With home sales at12-year lows and foreclosure rates rising, the demand for rental units has held its ground.  The apartment vacancy rate is expected to stay close to 6% with rent growth to rise by 2% in 2009.

How do we get out of this jam?  First, a massive government stimulus package was already passed in late February.  The $787 billion package, a mix of tax cuts and government spending, is by any measure HUGE.  The efficiency and efficacy of the components are questionable and debatable, but the vast scope of the stimulus package assures that there will be economic turnaround before year’s end.  The economy may even be able to squeak out a gain as early as the third quarter.  That will steadily help on the mob front and on net absorption going into 2010.  Low interest rates and the Federal Reserve pumping liquidity into frozen markets, such as directly buying commercial mortgage-backed securities and small business loans, will also help unclog the credit market.

The baseline forecast, however, is:

·         The economy will pop positive from the fourth quarter;

·         The GDP to expand 1.7 percent in 2010;

·         The unemployment rate, after peaking near 10 percent, will steadily slide down next year;

·         After no rise in consumer price inflation this year, inflation will only rise by 1.2 percent next year;

·         There is little inflation threat – both despite the massive liquidity pump and government spending, and because of continuing excess slack in the economy – which will permit the Fed to keep the rates low through the end of 2010;

·         The 10-year Treasury yield rising to a possible 4 percent by then will not hamper recovery;

·         Cap rates, which had been widening in recent quarters to Treasury, can remain at a comfortable 6-7 percent, thereby preventing property values from collapsing.

A pessimistic turn of events is the debt market’s inability to handle the federal deficit of nearly $2 trillion.  What is China does not buy U.S. debt?  What if inflation pops once the velocity of money picks up?  What if the credit crunch continues despite all government efforts?  The economy, after a short term boost, could easily sag again.  Once that happens, there may not be a public appetite for more government stimulus.  There may not be financial market appetite to take on excessive government debt.  A sagging economy with no further feasible stimulus is a receipt for disaster.  Because of this possibility, in my view, the massive government stimulus package of 2009 is a one-time shot at getting the economy right.

In the optimistic scenario, a strong resurgence of consumer confidence will push the economy to grow at a faster than normal pace, while strong job gains and fewer on the unemployment dole will quickly trim the federal budget deficit.  The stock market could turn markedly higher from a relaxation in mark-to-market accounting, which NAR has been advocating.  Another source of rising consumer confidence will be the end of home price declines.  The home buyer tax credit is an added incentive to jump into the market.  As buyers enter, housing inventory will get trimmed and home prices could stabilize in many parts of the country by the year’s end.  Home price stabilization will mean no further bleeding of bank balance sheets and no further destruction of housing equity.  Banks will lend more and consumers will hit the malls.

On a hopeful note, we are already seeing a rather strong recovery in home sales in the hard hit markets of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.  Buyers are fighting over knocked-down home prices.  It appears that once a few buyers get in on the game, other are following.  Sales are doubling in California with frequent occurrences of multiple biddings.  A tipping point has evidently been achieved,  Will other states follow a similar recovery path?

 

 

 

 

Raleigh-Cary area tops nation in growth

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

The metropolitan area is home to more than 1 million people after growing by more than 4 percent from 2007 to 2008. But that is slower than in previous years.

By Kristin Collins, Staff writer

As the national economy lost steam last year, the Raleigh area continued to attract residents, becoming the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country.

According to census numbers released today, the Raleigh-Cary metropolitan area, which includes Wake, Johnston and Franklin counties, grew by 4.3 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, and is now home to close to 1.1 million people. It well outpaced its closest rival, the Austin, Texas, area, which grew by 3.8 percent.

The national average was just under 1 percent.

The Triangle has been near the top of the nation’s growth chart for more than a decade, as newcomers poured into the area to take jobs in technology, tourism and academia. The resulting building boom, and the jobs that came with it, drew hundreds of thousands of new residents.

Much changed in recent months as the economy fell into a deep recession. While the downturn took longer to arrive in North Carolina, the state’s unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is now well above the national average of 8.1 percent.

Next year’s figures may show a darker picture for the Triangle.

Even this year marks a slowdown for the area, despite its place at the top of the list. The growth rate was nearly half a point lower than the two previous years, when it was 4.7 percent.

The Durham-Chapel Hill metropolitan area, which includes Durham, Orange, Chatham and Person counties, didn’t make the Top 10, but its population continued to swell at a steady 2.5 percent, up slightly from the year before. Just fewer than 490,000 people live in that area.

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Filling Vacant Retail Boxes Requires Thinking Outside the Box

Friday, March 6th, 2009

CoStar recently reported on alternative tenant uses and strategies for filling vacant retail space.  Of particular interest in this article are the examples of Non-Traditional Tenants that can successfully fill these spaces and the emphasis on creativity and aggressive marketing necessary to target these alternative tenants.

GOVERNMENT USES

Examples: Department of Motor Vehicles, City Halls, Military Recruitment Centers, Libraries

Jones Lang Lasalle retail’s Bemis said there’s a “fairly large trend” of government entities opening in malls. CoStar has recorded at least 100 leases to government entities at retail centers over the last six months. “While they’re not ideal for upscale malls, they are willing to lease those difficult spaces — usually in mall wings that are close to the parking lot,” he added.

EDUCATIONAL USES:
Examples: Satellite Colleges and Universities, Massage / Beauty Schools, Daycares, Youth Private Schools

With the population of those laid-off from their jobs incessantly on the rise, many people choose to “go back to school” during this down economic period. That said, schools are a good candidate to backfill vacant junior anchor or anchor spaces at shopping centers. CoStar has recorded at least 60 university/college/vocational school leases over the last six months, as well as countless preschools/day care centers.

CHURCHES
While those interviewed cited a few examples of churches signing leases as an example of alternative retail tenants, the consensus among those we consulted was that it’s not a widespread trend. CoStar recorded at least 80 leases signed by churches at retail centers over the last six months.

MEDICAL USES
Examples: Doctor’s Offices (Vision, Dental, Chiropractic, General Practice, Pediatrics & More), Medical / Urgent Care Clinics, Outpatient / Physical Therapy, Dialysis Centers, Medical Supply, Hearing Aid Centers

Medical uses are becoming more and more common at U.S. shopping centers. According to Costar Tenant, at least 120 leases were signed in this category at retail centers over the last six months.

RECREATIONAL / FAMILY FUN USES
This category can get interesting. Bingo Halls or Bridge Clubs are not uncommon. Indoor children / family fun centers are also popular as replacement tenants — think bouncy houses, indoor mini-golf, roller skating, bowling, play structures and ball pits, arcades, laser-tag arena, birthday party centers and the like. These tenants are candidates for small spaces all the way up big box spaces. CoStar recorded at least 30 leases in this category over the last six months.

FITNESS USES
While often downplayed by brokers and store owners as “non-ideal”, fitness tenants have become a much more common fixture at shopping centers than in the past, said our experts. This category is widespread, from national and regional chains taking over vacant big box spaces, to local and franchise users opening up specialized fitness instruction spaces (dance, martial arts, personal trainers, and yoga are examples) and weight loss clinics. CoStar has recorded nearly 350 leases in this category over the last six months

SECOND-HAND / OVERSTOCK
Examples: Thrift Stores, Consignment Stores, Second-Run Cinemas, Used Furniture, Used Books/CDs/Video Games, Antiques, used sports equipment, Bakery Outlets, “Scratch-n-Dent” / Overstock item Retailers, Pawn Shops

With tightened pockets, consumers are much more willing to sell, trade, or buy their “gently-used” items; they still want to go to the movies, but are willing to view films that have been out for a while already, sit in older seats, and deal with below-par picture and sound; and being they’re on the lookout for a “great deal”, they don’t mind buying dented cans of food or “irregular” merchandise.

SEASONAL / TEMPORARY
Examples: Mall Kiosks, Holiday Goods Retailers, Annual Inventory Liquidators

With vacancy on the rise, landlords have become more willing to consider signing temporary tenants, as they look to generate at least some income while they continue to search for a permanent tenant. However, the number of potential tenants in this category continue to be limited, said our experts.

“At malls, this is called ’specialty leasing’, and often these tenants can help lead to growth as they’re converted into permanent tenants. However, the specialty leasing world has been hit with the rest of the leasing world in the scramble to find appropriate retailers for space,” said Bemis.

TRADITIONAL TENANTS

Surprisingly, there are still a few traditional tenants expanding, the deals are just fewer and farther between. Some categories continue to plug along with expansion, however.

Discounters are the standout across the board named by all interviewees. Dollar stores (this category is widespread from small shop local and franchised stores to the likes of Dollar Tree, Dollar General and Family Dollar), discount grocers (Aldi, Save-A-Lot, etc), big-box discounters (Target, Wal-Mart), wholesale clubs (Costco, BJ’s, Sam’s Club), and off-price brand retailers (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, etc) were identified.

Other common uses continuing to sign leases over the last six months include wireless phone/mobile device retailers (at least 350 leases in the last six months), video game retailers (at least 150 leases over the last six months), quick service restaurants (at least 800 leases signed in the last six months), drug stores, wine/liquor/cigar shops (38, 42, and 29 leases in the last six months, respectively), tax preparers, insurance (at least 150 leases over the last six months), real estate/construction (yes that’s right, at least 85 leases were signed in the last six months), hobby/craft retailers (approx. 50 leases over last six months), pet care/supplies (at least 60 leases over the last six months), salons/spas (at least 375 leases signed over the last six months), massage/ acupuncture (at least 80 leases over the last six months), financial services (at least 75 leases over the last six months), beauty supply (at least 80 leases over the last six months), copy/ship, sign makers, rental centers (at least 60 leases over the last six months), and more.

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX

“Creativity is very important now,” stressed Bemis. As an example, Bemis cited JLL Retail’s work on the Crestwood Court mall just outside of St. Louis. “Half of this center is getting redeveloped in a few years, but in the interim, about half of the space was vacant. We approached the arts community and were successful in turning that vacant space into an artisan community,” said Bemis. At ArtSpace, local artisans rent space for studios where they can work on, display and sell their works; space for art classes, as well as live theatre is also on the premises. While ArtSpace was originally planned as a temporary use, Bemis said it’s caught on in the community and is “keeping the mall very vital and interesting” and as a result, might be considered as part of the Crestwood’s redevelopment plan.

Ralston takes an analytic approach. “I suggest exploring the detailed demographic reports available. Take a look at the NAICS codes for retail and restaurant use and scrutinize each trade and its subsets in order to identify tenants. Then cross-reference that with demographic data on the categories where people spend their money [national per capita averages in comparison to the same in a certain radius of the subject property], to identify uses that are underserved in a certain geography.”

Meanwhile Williams said that calls coming in from their “for lease” signs are “down about 40% nationally, so now it’s really important to use every avenue of advertising, as well as pounding the pavement and canvassing.”

More Gains for Green Building in 2009

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

It is difficult to imagine economic turmoil as a good thing for any business sector, but as markets have steadily worsened this year, the outlook for the green building industry appears to be trending the opposite direction.

November was an exceptionally robust month for the publication of green building data, with more than 10 surveys and reports exploring an array of topics such as worker productivity in LEED buildings, the impact of construction declines, cost premiums and payback periods, and perceptions of the business case for green.

Though polling and research has increased in the past few years, new data has been even more in-demand lately as property stakeholders attempt to gauge how the credit crisis and a full year of recession have affected green building.

Almost universally, the data points to another good year in 2009.

One of the more insightful reports is the “Green Building Impact Report 2008” from Greener World Media, which quantifies the overall effects of LEED on industry and the environment.

In its boldest conclusion, the report said that companies in LEED building have realized annual employee productivity gains exceeding $170 million as a result of improved indoor environmental quality — a cause and effect that has been difficult to quantify. That figure is predicted to jump well into the billions by 2015 as the number of employees in LEED buildings grows more than 10-fold, the report said.

On the industry side, LEED-certified projects have specified more than $10 billion of green materials to date, which has been a boon for the manufacturing sector, according to the study. Environmentally, LEED buildings have cumulatively saved 400 million vehicle miles traveled, 9.5 billion gallons of water and 0.03 quadrillion quads of energy.

The report predicts an overall “flattening” of the rate of LEED growth as it begins to saturate markets, but continued growth in the amount of floor area that is certified. “The current economic situation coupled with increased stringency in the LEED requirements will contribute to an expected slowdown” in LEED growth, the report said.

McGraw Hill’s “2009 Green Outlook” study said green building seems to be insulated from the recession and is growing “in spite of the market downturn.” The value of green construction increased five-fold from $10 billion in 2005 to as much as $49 billion this year, and could triple by 2013 to nearly $150 billion, the study reported.

In Turner Construction Co.’s “2008 Green Building Market Barometer”, more than 80 percent of real estate executives said they would be “extremely” or “very likely” to seek LEED certification for new projects in the next three years. And at an Ernst & Young roundtable of construction company financial executives, 99 percent of survey respondents said interest in green development would increase next year, or at least remain the same as it is this year.

For the second year in a row, architects said that sustainable design is being driven by client demand, which is in turn being driven primarily by perceived energy savings and marketing benefits. More than 20 percent of architects also said that “market demand” was motivating clients to build green. Only 10 percent said that was a factor last year.

Nearly three-fourths of architects polled were concerned that clients are still not willing to pay cost premiums for green design, although according to a new global study written by sustainability expert Greg Kats, premiums for new buildings average just 2 percent.

Called “Greening Buildings and Communities: Costs and Benefits”, the report found that most green buildings cost less than 4 percent more than conventional buildings, with the greatest concentration of premiums in the 0 percent to 1 percent range.

As a CoStar study revealed earlier in the year, key indicators of building value such as occupancy, sale prices and lease rates tend to be higher in green buildings than in conventional buildings, the Kats study reported.

It also said that green buildings reduce energy use by an average of 33 percent, and that cost savings from energy efficiency would more than offset the green development premium, often in five years or less.

Kats said those factors have made green buildings remarkably resilient to the economy. “The deep downturn in real estate has not reduced the rapid growth in demand for and construction of green buildings. This suggests a flight to quality as buyers express a market preference for buildings that are more energy efficient, more comfortable and healthier,” he said.

That notion is not lacking for supporters.

Nearly 70 percent of corporate real estate executives responded that sustainability is a “critical business issue” in a survey by Jones Lang LaSalle and corporate real estate trade group CoreNet Global in a recent survey, which is up almost 20 points from last year.

(CoStar)

Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors Refutes N&O Article

Monday, October 27th, 2008

 

In response to the main headline in the 10/27/08 N&O, The RRAR makes these points that contradict

the headline “5 reasons for housing crash,” which is yet another attempt to scare local readers by using data from selected national sources. The writer states five reasons; crashing home prices, investor speculation, complex

investments, job losses and repeat delinquencies. The RRAR provides some local perspective on each of the five reasons cited in the AP article.

 

1)  When analyzing our market, I look at data from the counties of Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston.

Within this market, the average closed price of all housing is up 8% and the average closed price of

resale housing is up 6%. House price appreciation, which compares the two most recent sales prices of

the same house , is an area where the Triangle outperforms the national market. Our current rate of house

price appreciation in the Triangle is just over 4%. This rate beats the state (+3.6%) and national rates

(-4.5%).

 

2)  The Wake County Revenue Department reported +/- 21,000 closed sales within the past 13

months. Roughly 5% of these sales were purchased by buyers from out of town, a huge difference

compared to the 20% rate nationally.

 

3)  It is almost impossible to track what percentage of local purchases were made via the subprime loan

mechanism. Per the FHFA mortgage metrics survey for the second quarter of 2008, 17% of all

outstanding mortgages in the U.S. are rated as subprime. Therefore it would be hard to argue that a

majority of house purchases were made via this mechanism.

 

4)  Job losses are real both nationally and locally. The Raleigh/Cary/Durham MSA did not have a

workforce increase comparing 8/08 with 8/07 for the first time since the 8/01 versus 8/00 period.

 

5)  The mortgage metrics survey reveals some additional information regarding the national mortgage

market. They surveyed over 30 million outstanding loans in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac system and

found that 98.6% of these loans were rated as current. They also state that foreclosure proceedings

were initiated on 432 homeowners per day during the second quarter, a big difference from the 2,700

per day figure stated in the lead paragraph.  There are currently +/- 14,000 listings within the four county

area in TMLS. Roughly 3% of these listings are classified as foreclosure, bank or corporate owned. I have

been tracking the residential market within the Triangle for over 20 years. The foreclosure market has

always accounted for a very small percentage of activity.

Our current market can be summed up with my version of the good, the bad and the ugly:

 

The Good

  • Third quarter closings were the 6th highest in history
  • Current supply of 8 months is lower than national current supply of 11 months
  • Average house price appreciation is superior to state and national rates
  • Average re-sale sales price +6%, average overall sales price +8%, average list price +2%
  • Houses priced correctly have sold in an average of 55 days

The Bad

  • Overall inventory grew 7%, making 2 consecutive months of less than 10% growth
  • Withdrawn listings increased 2% compared to 9/07

The Ugly

  • 29 consecutive months of inventory growth, 20 consecutive months of lower pending sales
  • 63% of all price points have an oversupply of housing product
  • 9/08 expired listings were 227% higher than 9/07 expired listings

 

A survey of Wake County house purchases where the house was purchased and then re-sold within

the past 12 months reveals a median percent per gain of 0%. I think that is pretty impressive

compared to what is happening in the national market.

 

As we have seen during 2008, our local market is not immune from happenings in the national

market. Our biggest challenges during the fourth quarter of this year and into next year are to grow

the workforce and cut down on the number of price points with an oversupply of housing.

 

(From Stacey Anfindsen of the Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors)

Raleigh, Durham, Cary’s 2008 Accolades

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

With today’s economy constantly providing us with negative news, let’s all be thankful we are living, working, and playing in one of the best places in the nation.  Listed below is just a reminder of our area’s many accolades for 2008!

# 2 Best Performing Metro (Raleigh-Cary)
Milken Institute, September 10, 2008

# 21 Best Performing Metro (Durham)
Milken Institute, September 10, 2008

# 2 Best State (NC) in Business Climate
Development Counselors International (DCI), July 28, 2008

# 4 Best College Program (UNC) in 2007-2008
Sports Illustrated, July 16, 2008

# 3 Most Educated Workforce (Raleigh)
Business Facilities, July 2008

# 10 Fastest Growing City (Raleigh) by Numeric Value
U.S. Census Bureau, July 10, 2008

# 5 Fastest Growing City (Cary) by Percentage Value
U.S. Census Bureau, July 10, 2008

# 13 Fastest Growing City (Raleigh) by Percentage Value
U.S. Census Bureau, July 10, 2008

# 2 Best City (Raleigh) to Live, Work and Play
Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, July 2008

# 8 Best City (Raleigh-Durham) for Recent College Grads
Forbes, June 26, 2008

# 12 Highest Concentration of Tech Workers (Raleigh-Cary MSA)
AeA’s Cybercities 2008, June 23, 2008

# 4 Highest Concentration of Tech Workers (Durham MSA)
AeA’s Cybercities 2008, June 23, 2008

# 2 Highest Location Quotient in Drugs and Pharmaceutical Jobs for Medium MSAs (Durham MSA)
Technology, Talent and Capital: State Bioscience Initiatives 2008, June 18, 2008

# 7 Largest Employment Levels of Drug and Pharmaceutical Jobs (Raleigh-Durham-Cary CBSA)
Technology, Talent and Capital: State Bioscience Initiatives 2008, June 18, 2008

# 9 Largest Employment Levels of Drug and Pharmaceutical Jobs (Durham MSA)
Technology, Talent and Capital: State Bioscience Initiatives 2008, June 18, 2008

# 12 Largest Employment Levels of Drug and Pharmaceutical Jobs (Raleigh-Cary MSA)
Technology, Talent and Capital: State Bioscience Initiatives 2008, June 18, 2008

# 1 Largest Employment Levels in Research, Testing & Medical Labs for Medium MSAs (Durham MSA)
Technology, Talent and Capital: State Bioscience Initiatives 2008, June 18, 2008