See the article below about the apartment market in the current economy.  We have the ability to analyze these deals and help you determine the quality of  an investment and project potential returns. 

Contact us with your investment objectives and we can search for investment properties that will meet your needs.

Dan Smith

Millridge Commercial Real Estate

919 554-4165

APARTMENTS:

Transaction Volume Rises More in Apartment Than in Other Property Types

Distress is hitting home in the multifamily sector, and as more assets become troubled, the bid/ask spread will tighten in 2010 and cause sales volume to rise quickly. In the last cycle,apartment-sales volume peaked in 2005 (due to the condo-conversion craze), while office,retail, and warehouse sales volume peaked in 2007. This timing, combined with the sector’s shorter lease terms and tumbling NOIs, is resulting in expedited distress. Delinquencies in the apartment market have risen by 590 basis points in the last 12 months as of the third quarter, compared with just 390, 290, and 240 basis points for retail, warehouse, and office,respectively. The typically higher loan-to-value ratios and lower debt-service-coverage ratios in this sector are certainly not helping matters, either, and just as delinquencies are mounting, the vultures are circling. Since apartment investment has been sliding since 2005, there is plenty of pent-up interest in the sector. And if PPR’s client activity is any indication, that interest is growing daily. As of December, 61% of all client activity on the PPR Portal in the last 90 days has been apartment related, and this proportion has been steadily increasing. The apartment sector’s strong drivers going forward (including healthy demographics, an increasing renter pool, and stabilization in the labor markets) are driving investor interest. And, of course, the greater availability of debt in the multifamily sector will propel investment volume through 2010. As Fannie and Freddie continue to finance multifamily loans, apartment investors have a leg up on their other commercial counterparts. But should the GSEs cut down on their apartment lending activity in the second half of 2010, sales volume could certainly take a nosedive.

Exhibit 9). In addition to the pretty rough fundamentals environment through year end, with record high vacancies and plummeting rents, the cap rate question is really one of spreads. Right now, apartment cap rates of around 7% on 10-year Treasuries of about 3.5% equates to a spread of about 350 basis points. As fundamentals improve, cap rate spreads will come in a bit during the recovery; however, given the stimulus and the potential for higher inflation, we expect the 10-year Treasury rate to head towards 5.5% — if not in 2010, then in 2011. Therefore, a 250- or 300-basis-point spread results in cap rates of 8%–8.5%, depending on the market. However, if we handicap this prediction, particularly for 2010, we expect that we are a bit too conservative — i.e., rates could surprise on the upside and remain low, and spreads could come in a bit more than we expect.

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January 2010

vol.14 no. 1

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Wake Forest named a top U.S. growth city

Triangle Business Journal

Wake Forest is one of the top high-growth communities in the country, according to a ranking compiled by research firm Gadberry Group.

Gadberry, which provides location information and household data for clients such as retailers, on Tuesday announced the top nine cities in its “from 2009” report.

Little Rock, Ark.-based Gadberry evaluated various metrics, including growth in households and income. Wake Forest placed sixth in the ranking. The city grew from 8,150 households in 2000 to 17,803 in 2009, a 118 percent increase, according to Gadberry’s analysis. The average annual household income for Wake Forest increased from $70,148, to $82,771.

The top city was Atlanta suburb Braselton, Ga., which saw its household income increase 67 percent from 2000 to 2009. Houston suburb Atascocita, Texas followed. Texas was well represented with four cities. Besides Wake Forest, no other North Carolina community made Gadberry’s top rankings.

“As a Wake Forest native, I’ve recognized the explosive growth that our community has experienced,” Don Stroud, Wake Forest Area Chamber of Commerce board co-chair said in a statement. “The Gadberry data will give us the quantitative tools we need to continue to draw new development to Wake Forest.”

Distressed properties reflect struggling market fundamentals

Commercial real estate closed the first half of the year with weakened fundamentals and a slow pace of transactions amid difficult economic conditions.  Demand for commercial properties dropped precipitously, bringing down prices and rents.  In addition, maturing commercial debt was met with little available credit, leading to a jump in delinquencies and distressed properties.  As space flooded the market, vacancy rates have been rising across the board.  And while the economic decline is showing signs of a slowdown, commercial real estate continues to face strong headwinds.

Commercial real estate activity has suffered from a severe credit crunch for commercial sectors, sustained job losses and weak consumer spending, although the decline appears to be slowing.  A forward-looking indicator shows commercial real estate will remain weak into 2010, but recent actions by the Federal Reserve should improve some flow of capital into commercial lending, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity declined 1.3 percent to an index of 101.5 in the second quarter from a downwardly revised reading of 102.8 in the first quarter, and is 13.7 percent below the 117.6 recorded in the second quarter of 2008.  The index is at the lowest level since the first quarter of 1994; NAR’s track of the commercial leading indicator dates back to 1990.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted the pace of decline moderated, but the leading indicator has fallen sharply and quickly from the peak, suggesting much lower business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners engaged in leasing, sales and property management.  “The reduction in commercial real estate activity is expected at least through the first quarter of 2010.  Any meaningful recovery is not likely to occur before the second half of next year.”

The decline is driven by falling industrial production, far fewer jobs requiring office and retail space, a fall in durable goods shipments, much lower personal spending, lower retail and wholesale sales, and a negative return on commercial investment.  

“With the economic recession likely coming to an end within six months, a recovery in commercial real estate may soon follow,” Yun said.   “The office sector requires job growth to fuel the demand for additional space, the industrial sector needs a rise in production and the retail sector is tied to consumer spending.  Multifamily housing – the apartment market – often performs in reverse to trends in home sales, but can improve if there is sufficient household growth.”  

The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, a separate attitudinal survey of more than 650 local market experts,² also suggests a lower level of business activity in upcoming quarters.  Most respondents are seeing sales prices that are lower than replacement costs, and 96 percent report deep rental discounts and increased tenant concessions.

The SIOR index has declined for 10 consecutive quarters and stood at 36.0 in the second quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace.

Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee chair Robert Toothaker said it is crucial to improve the availability of funds for commercial loans.  “Properties with positive cash flow have had trouble finding financing to roll over debt, transactions are essentially at a standstill and new development is virtually nonexistent in most areas,” he said.

“Commercial loans are mostly short term, and without ready financing even the most experienced commercial players can get into trouble.  The Fed’s recent decision to extend the TALF program for commercial mortgage backed securities beyond the end of 2009 is highly welcome because the flow of liquidity to commercial real estate will be critical for a sustainable economic recovery,” Toothaker said.  “However, unless there is a tremendous short-term recovery in the CRE markets, we expect the Fed will be revisiting the issue of another extension of the TALF program early in 2010.”

Bond yields on CMBS rose following the announcement by the Federal Reserve on August 17 that it is extending TALF lending for existing commercial securities through March 31, 2010, and for newly issued CMBS through June 30.

Looking at the broad market, commercial vacancy rates continue to rise while rents decline, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK.³  The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets.  Historic data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research.

Yun projects the unemployment rate to peak around 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter, then gradually improve as 2010 progresses.  “We will need sustained economic growth before many employers have enough confidence to expand the job base and create new demand for space,” he said.

The gross domestic product should contract 2.9 percent in 2009 before growing 1.5 percent next year.  Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecast to decline 0.5 percent this year before rising 2.0 percent in 2010.

Office Market

The office sector continues to suffer the most from job losses, which reduces the demand for space.  Vacancy rates will probably increase from 15.5 percent in the second quarter to 18.8 percent in the second quarter of 2010. In the Triangle market, office vacancy is substantially higher than the national average, posted at 18.49% according to Triangle Business Journal’s SPACE survey.

Annual rent in the office sector is projected to fall 14.1 percent this year and 10.0 percent in 2010 after a 0.4 percent decline last year.  In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is estimated to be a negative 75.0 million square feet in 2009 and a negative 47.2 million next year.

Industrial Market  

The contracting global economy has constricted the industrial sector.  Vacancy rates are likely to rise from 13.0 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.0 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Triangle warehouse vacancy is trending higher than the national average as well, posted at 19.78% as of the end of the second quarter.

Annual industrial rent should fall 11.4 percent this year and another 11.7 percent in 2010, after declining 0.8 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 300.0 million square feet this year, and a negative 112.0 million in 2010.  Because much construction in recent years was customized to meet specific industrial needs, many obsolete structures remain on the market.

Retail Market

Given a pattern of weak consumer spending, the retail vacancy rate is forecast to edge up from 11.7 percent in the second quarter to 12.9 percent in the same period of 2010.  Average retail rent is likely to fall 6.1 percent in 2009 and 4.9 percent next year; it declined 2.0 percent in 2008.  Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is expected to be a negative 25.9 million square feet this year and a negative 3.6 million in 2010. Largely due to restraint in speculative building on the part of retail developers, the Triangle market is faring better than the national average in the retail sector, with vacancy posted at 8.81% as of the end of the second quarter.

Multifamily Market

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is facing higher home sales by first-time buyers, but also is experiencing increased demand from families who have lost their homes.  Multifamily vacancy rates should slip from 7.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 7.1 percent in the second quarter of next year.

According to the National Association of Realtors’ overall forecast for commercial real estate, this industry will continue to face negative absorption, increasing vacancies for all property types and declining rents. Commercial debt continues to pose a major threat.  Extension of TALF funds for commercial lending should provide liquidity, particularly in the CMBS market.  Investments may rise due to distressed properties and lower prices.

Change is never easy but always necessary.   As many of you are now aware Downtown Wake Forest is changing.  A plan that has long been in the making is slowly starting to take shape.  Several years ago our town planners and elected officials set out to preserve and grow our beautiful downtown.   As any resident in Wake Forest will attest our downtown is the heart of our beautiful city.   This new plan called “The Renaissance Plan,” is a balancing act of preserving and revitalizing the 220+ acres which make up the downtown area.   Some of the primary components of the plan include keeping and extending pedestrian friendly sidewalks and areas,  beautifying entrances and roadways,  and matching architecture of new projects with that of the older buildings.   No doubt these big plans will cause growing pains and challenges but will over time yield big dividends for our small town.   Projects that are underway in the area include the streetscape project on Franklin Street, the new Town Hall (scheduled for completion in Fall 2009), and a mixed use building on Franklin Street,  being developed by Wake Forest Partners Group, LLC.   Millridge Real Estate is offering a prime piece of real estate in the Renaissance District, 6.63 acres on the northeast corner of the NC 98 Bypass and Franklin Street.  The link to the marketing flier for this property can be accessed below. To learn more about the Renaissance project visit the web site below.     Trey Watkins  2-10-09

http://www.wakeforestnc.gov/residents/planning_renaissancemasterplan.aspx

There are many issues that can arise with respect to how you take title to property, and especially so in a commercial context. If you take title as an individual, you may be exposing yourself to potential liability exposure that you might want to try to avoid or at least minimize. You take title through a business corporation, but doing this could be disaster from a tax standpoint point. Sometimes, there may be other alternatives such as forming a limited liability company that you would own and control that, in turn, could lease the property to your business entity.

If joint ownership is involved, you should clearly understand the differences between taking title as joint tenants, as tenants in common, as a partnership, or as community property. You should also clearly understand your rights versus the rights of your co-owners. Each and all of these types of ownership have significant ownership implications and rights of survivorship.

It short, there are no universal rules of thumb with respect to how to take title. It’s always advisable to seek professional advice, including your lawyer and CPA, to assist you in making a smart decision.

1031 EXHANGE DEFINITION

Internal Revenue Code Section 1031 is a powerful tool for deferring capital gains tax on commercial/investment transactions. A 1031 Tax Deferral permits a taxpayer to reinvest the proceeds from the sale of a property held for investment or business purposes into another investment or business property, and defer capital gains taxes that would otherwise be due on the initial sale.

The most common type of exchange is the “Forward Delay Exchange” where the taxpayer sells business or investment property and acquires Replacement Property of equal or greater value within 180 days. The use of a qualified intermediary service is a safe harbor requirement to facilitate a valid tax deferred exchange.

 WHY A 1031?

In addition to deferring taxes and reinvesting savings, there are many other advantages to exchanging investment properties, including:

Leverage: Leverage your equity to acquire a more valuable property or properties.

Diversification: Spread your equity to acquire a more valuable property or properties.

Consolidation: Consolidate the equity among properties varying in value, type or location.

Cash Flow: Move equity from a low income producing property (like raw land) to a higher income producing property such as retail or industrial.

Management Relief: Trade property with excessive maintenance and overhead for managed property.

Increased Depreciation: Change property types to take maximum advantage of available depreciation.

Estate Planning: Turn tax deferral into tax savings by including 1031 strategies in your estate plan.

One of the most repeated words of advice when investing in real estate is to work with a broker who knows your market of interest.  The team at Millridge Real Estate has extensive knowledge of the Wake, Franklin, Durham, Granville and RTP areas.  Trust your real estate investments with Millridge Real Estate. Many of our brokers also have extensive experience in 1031 exchanges and will gladly advise you on any of your real estate needs. 

For commercial real estate practitioners in Wake Forest it seems US 1 is a blessing and a curse.  With over 40,000 cars daily it’s no wonder our area has seen such tremendous retail and residential growth along our life line to Raleigh.   However as traffic challenges reach epic levels the DOT has all but ceased to allow access points. This leaves property owners and brokers with potential sales feeling frustrated and discriminated against for holding property that they could have sold long ago.   As much as we might feel otherwise, the DOT does not have a vendetta against us.  In order to maintain the quality of the Wake Forest area as well as allow growth to continue north, the DOT is developing a plan to improve commuting and truck traffic flow while allowing circulation roadways to serve local and retail traffic.  It is an ambitious and extremely expensive proposition, but we need to commend the DOT for having the foresight to look ahead.  It will take resolve to make the plan a realty, but the payoff will be substantial.  If easy access to Raleigh is maintained, residential growth can continue as Raleigh grows.  But transplants want the quality of life that our smaller Wake Forest provides.  In addition, land values and uses north of Wake Forest will improve, perhaps attracting larger employees that need to be near Raleigh. 

See the details and maps of the plan at the NC DOT  website: http://www.ncdot.org/doh/preconstruct/tpb/SHC/studies/US1/Overview/ http://www.ncdot.org/doh/preconstruct/tpb/SHC/studies/US1/area/

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The Chrysler building was briefly (in 1930) the tallest building in the world before the Empire State building was completed a year later. it served for a time as the New York offices of the car company and remains an Art Deco icon in the city, and the world for that matter. It’s certainly more attractive than most of the vehicles bearing the same name today. The Abu Dhabi Investment Council is reportedly looking at buying a 75% stake in the tower for $800 million. The share of the building is currently owned by Atlanta-based investment fund TMW. The other 25 percent of the building is owned by Tishman Speyer Properties. Back in the wake of the Daimler Chrysler merger, Jurgen Schrempp talked of renovating the long unused upper floors of the building for use as a world headquarters office space, but its unknown if the renovations ever happened. It certainly didn’t serve as a home to DCX.